Pachter Responds to Mitchell
Todd Mitchell of Kaufman Bros. Equity Research stated in an interview last week that “Nintendo’s success with the DS and Wii bodes poorly for the publishers”, adding, “Nintendo is dominating software sales on its popular hardware platforms, leaving the publishers with a smaller slice of an only somewhat incrementally larger pie.
Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz, Pachter described Mitchell’s comments as “naive”.
Going forward, the publishers are all trying to be largely platform agnostic. The success of the Wii and DS means that virtually every mainstream title will appear on both platforms. If consumers have a choice of all games on the Wii and DS, and Nintendo’s offering remains constant, Nintendo must lose share. That is a good thing for the third party publishers. His (Todd) conclusion is that Nintendo’s success on the GameCube and GBA will translate to future success on the DS and Wii, so he’s basing his opinion on a view that Nintendo will capture somewhere around 30 percent market share on each of its new consoles. This is naive. I expect that Nintendo’s first party share will decline from around 30 percent last cycle to around 20 percent this cycle, and that many publishers trying to capture market share will succeed.
Way to be Pachter!